Friday, March 6, 2009

Fibonacci Golden Ratio Work In Forex Trading

By Richard U. Olson

Leonardo of Pisa, better known to us today as Fibonacci first introduced what we call the Fibonacci sequence to the west in his 1202 book Liber Abaci (the sequence was already known in Indian mathematics). He stumbled upon this sequence while attempting to estimate how many rabbits he would be able to breed in one year based on his knowledge of their breeding habits. This mathematical model is used by Forex traders today.

Mistakenly many individuals consider mathematical abstraction as frivolous; however it is rooted into real world mathematical applications. The Fibonacci sequence is useful for making us aware of and then explaining those hidden patterns around us daily.

It works really well while investing. Why? Well, based on the mass behavior of investors there are various hidden patterns in the stock market. Perceptive investors know this. Investment aphorisms such as "The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets" and "Buy low and sell high" work well. However, they also relate to understanding the investment markets hidden patterns.

These patterns cannot be seen by a day to day observation of market conditions, but reveal themselves when you step back and take a look at the big picture. Short term fluctuations in the market are nearly impossible to accurately forecast. However, the trends which occur over time most certainly are predictable. Investors of all stripes, including Forex traders have used the Fibonacci sequence to plan their investments and make large profits in the currency exchange markets.

The Fibonacci sequence is a series of numbers in which each successive number is the sum of the two previous numbers. So it goes 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and into perhaps infinity. There are a number of interrelationships held within these numbers; for instance, any given number is approximately 1.618 times the preceding number, and 1.618 happens to represent the ancient Greeks' "golden ratio"--considered to be the supreme essence of balance (and balance is the ultimate key to successful investing).

The most common applications of the Fibonacci sequence for investment purposes are retracements and arcs.

Fibonacci chart technique involves three curved lines drawn for anticipating key resistance and supporting various levels as well as areas of ranging. First drawn is an invisible trendline between the two points of high and low for particular period of time. Next, three intersecting curves are drawn overlapping the trendline at the levels of 38.2, 50, and 61.8 percent according to Fibonacci. When the price of the asset crosses through these key levels, decisions of transaction are made.

In the world of investment, retracement relates to the reversal in movements of the price of a stock. An impressive reversal can counter the prevailing trend in the stock. Successful progressive investors focus strongly on the retracement patterns and possibilities. The Fibonacci method of retracement evaluates the prospects of the price of a financial asset being more superior than is average as well as supporting or resisting at key Fibonacci levels before continuing on its original course. Between the two extreme points a trendline is drawn and then its vertical distance by the ratios of 23.6, 38.2, 50, 61.8, and 100 percent, according to Fibonacci.

Traders use Fibonacci retracements to determine strategic points for placing their transactions, target prices and stop-loss points. There are other tools which use retracement techniques, chief among them Elliott Wave Theory, Gartley patterns and Tirone levels.

The "Fibonacci formula" is used in investing for the simple reason that it works. Forex traders especially seem to find huge success from using it.

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